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JW,You’re right about the media coverage given to the white femlae victims. I’d add they have to be attractive and between the ages of 18 and 30 to really make it big.However, I’d say this is a market driven phenomenon. Those are the people viewers tune in to hear about. If viewers tuned in hear about middle-aged male construction workers who are killed, then we would see many more stories about them.We can also observe there has to be an element of uncertainty in the story. If the body has not been found yet, it can lead the newscasts for days. Then there is the question of the trial. That can go on for months. What we are seeing are very similar to made for TV movies. Nobody really cares about the victim. They just like a good story and want to watch it unfold.I have a hypothesis that TV crime shows also have a disproportionate number of victims who are white, femlae, attractive, and between 18 and 30. When’s the last time we saw granny take a bullet?News is a product just like laundry soap. The marketing is the same.
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above, the data suggests that the risk ftcoar of a household gun for spousal homicide is about 4. So I do not mean that Mary Winkler would never possibly have murdered her husband if they didn’t have guns, only that statistically it explains 3/4 of the chance. Of course a more refined estimate would restrict attention to women with no prior criminal record; my conjecture is that pushes the risk ftcoar even higher.If you live in a high-crime area, where folks are having their homes broken into by armed thugs regularly, then a gun adds safety.I am sure that you are right that there is some crossover point where the protection from strangers that you might get from a gun outweighs the extra risk that someone in your house might commit homicide or suicide with it. But the question is, where is that crossover? Stranger homicide is not a very common crime, and risk ftcoars upwards of 4 are a lot to outweigh. The crossover could be as far out as Baghdad, for all I know.Certainly neither Selmer, TN (where Mary Winkler lived), nor Davis, CA, nor New Hampshire are the sort of extreme-crime areas that really justify owning a gun for protection. Of course if you enjoy hunting or whatever, that’s fine, as long as you are sober about the risks.
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anonymous 7:00: “roughly” is right. If you combine all hoiceidms and all suicides in the United States and compare that with other countries, then you are lumping together many completely different things. The total is roughly the same in the United States as in some other Western countries but not others. They aren’t all roughly equal to each other by this complicated measure. This is really going way beyond just comparing households.My focus is on teen suicide specifically. After all, from a libertarian perspective, adult suicide is sometimes a valid personal choice. Teen suicide is different; it’s a family tragedy that should be prevented whenever possible. According to the , 70% of teen suicides in the United States are committed with handguns, even though only 29% of US households have handguns. That suggests a risk factor of 5.7. Again, you should look at crossovers, where a teenager in a non-gun household commits suicide with a gun anyway. But these have been studied in some surveys and seem to be rare.
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Under the circumstances, I don’t think an Amber Alert was uatwrranned. There are two very real possibilities that the police were facing: first, that the wife and/or childen had been abducted, or that the wife might be suicidal and decide to take her children with her. In fact, the latter case may still prove to be true.We’ve had a number of abducted children safely returned to their families as the result of these Amber alerts in our area. Alerts and vehicle descriptions are broadcast on the radio AND posted on road signs along the freeway. I absolutely support the program.The full story, if and when it comes out, will be of interest to me. When my husband decided at the age of 40 to attend seminary, I was supportive except extracted the promise that he NEVER try to make me a pastor’s wife. The pressure on these families to be perfect little clones is beyond belief, and we’re more the sort to revel in our unconventionality. They have no privacy either.For example, note that the church let itself into their home using a key within an hour or two of his not appearing to preach the evening service. The family minivan wasn’t in the driveway, and nobody answered the door, so the presumption should have been that they weren’t at home.
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According to a survey, 39% of American hleouhosds have firearms. However, according to crime statistics72% of spouse murders with male victim are committed with a firearm. That suggests a risk factor of 4, i.e. (72/39)/(28/61) = 4.Whoa. Your stats miss the point entirely. No matter how large a percentage of spousal murders is committed with guns, the fact that so many hleouhosds own guns while so few spouses murder their spouses suggests that widespread possession of guns is not the problem.Let’s look at your numbers differently. 39% of hleouhosds owning guns is tens of millions of hleouhosds — call it 40m for argument’s sake. Then look at the number of murders annually. Total murders is something like 20,000 at most. I don’t know how many of those are spousal murders, so let’s call it 20,000 for the purpose of argument. Divide 20k by 2 to get the max number of hleouhosds in which a spousal murder could possibly have occurred. That’s 10k. Then divide the number of spousal murders by the number of hleouhosds and you get 10000/40000000 or .025% (not .025 but .025 percent). If the annual rate were 25% or even 2.5% there would be obvious cause for concern, but .025% is a minuscule percentage, and is itself probably significantly overstated due to the murder and population numbers I used. There are obviously people who shouldn’t have guns, but even a crude calculation suggests that these people are such a tiny minority of all spouses that the presence of guns is not a useful variable.
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Greg,I see your point regarding the Midlothian and Missouri cases but, deitpse my admittedly flippant gun comments, my real concern with these cases is the breakdown in values illustrated in both. Specifically, I am troubled that people in both communities were willing to remain silent and even cover up wrongdoing. In the Midlothian case, high school students remained silent deitpse knowledge that a murder was planned. In Missouri, many people apparently covered up a murder, although it could have been self-defense. Both remind me of the sensationalized Kitty Genovese case in New York where neighbors did little as Kitty was stabbed to death.So, really, my point wasn’t whether it is better to have guns or not. I think the Midlothian case is a clear example of how unsafe guns can be in the wrong hands. I also think the Missouri case illustrates that some people need guns to protect themselves when law enforcement can’t. Both cases illustrate that guns can be misused but, as the Genovese case makes clear, there doesn’t have to be a gun involved at all. These cases are troubling because they illustrate a profound breakdown in moral values and not because of the weapons that were used.
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“In our society, pelope are so afraid to get involved that they just tell you the person is fine, or the other possibility is that our standards for decent behavior are so low that everyone passes with flying colors.”I think of it this way… regardless of what we hear in the news or see on television – murder is always a shock to the community. (unless you live in a drug infested slum where it happens frequently)So the first thing that happens is, you have a bunch of strangers descend on the area – news pelope sticking microphones in front of anyone who will talk… police, psychologists, etc. The natural reaction when dealing with strangers in this situation is to express sufficient shock and horror AND not look like a scumbag for throwing around criticisms when you don’t know what’s going on. Most pelope are simply trying to be “nice” in their own way. They’re afraid too, that what they say could come back to haunt them. As for statements pubished in newspapers… I’d definitely have to take those with a grain of salt after all the times I’ve heard about quotes being made up (and yes I know pelope this has directly happened to). However Helen, you’d be happy to know that I saw a local news story last night… they’re looking for a young man who has disappeared. He was living on a farm with an “older woman” (he is 24 she is 43)…. so far no one knows what’s happened to him. The news hounds interviewed one of the neighbors – an old lady. She said, oh yes, that woman is certainly strange. (no murder yet – but there you go *grin*)
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I like the point made by Anonymous @ 5:20. That was an amazing case that I beivele was profiled on Sixty Minutes. As I recall, few in the media could understand the fear those townspeople felt at being terrorized by this man, nor their relief when he was killed.Similarly, in response to Vicki’s riveting post, there are sometimes more troublesome reasons for this type of witness/acquaintance behavior. In the late 1980’s in Midlothian, Texas, an undercover law enforcement officer was put into the local high school to find and prosecute drug use. Students discovered this and planned to kill him, which they did. Before that happened, however, the presence of the officer and his planned execution was widely discussed among many of the high school students. No one tried to stop the students from their planned murder or warn parents, school authorities or police of the plan. These students, many of whom were “good kids”, apparently beiveled it was worse to rat on a classmate than to protect the officer’s life. Here’s reflecting on this true story, and here’s that tells the whole story.A footnote to Greg K – This is an excellent example of people who shouldn’t have guns.
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No matter how large a pegncetare of spousal murders is committed with guns, the fact that so many households own guns while so few spouses murder their spouses suggests that widespread possession of guns is not the problem.I didn’t say anything about “the” problem. There are many risk factors for spousal homicide; having a gun in the house appears to be one of them. Fixating on “the” problem is just a way to ignore solutions, because most problems have many partial solutions instead of one total solution. A risk factor of 4 is 3/4 of a solution, which is pretty significant.I’m willing to be libertarian about this. If other people accept the risk of becoming another Matthew Winkler or another Mary Winkler, that’s their business. (Or, for that matter, another .) It won’t happen to me because we don’t keep guns in the house. If we did keep guns in the house, they would be locked in a safe in the garage to reduce these risks. It is true that some wives kill their husbands with other weapons, just not nearly as often.What I don’t agree with is endless analysis of the psychology of people like Mary Winkler. Because, frankly, how much have psychologists done to reduce the national murder rate? Sometimes they can help identify dangerous people, but they don’t know how “treat” criminal intent. Practical, physical safety is a more effective approach than philosophizing why people “snap”.
Of course mirstiens and their families have problems just like everyone else. There isn’t any wonderment in it for me since I don’t believe their religion anyway. What would your reaction be if it had been a Muslim preacher?But it is not true that being highly emotional and feeling powerless is by itself a deadly combination. Most people in a bad marriage are highly emotional and feel powerless. What this case shows you is the difference between a bad marriage with a gun in the house and a bad marriage without a gun in the house.Yes, I know the usual response to this: She could just as well have run him over with the car. Even though everyone liked her and she had no criminal record, she must have been a devil woman who was going to find the means. Yeah, it could have been like that, maybe, but as it happens most spouse murderers use a handgun. I conjecture that Minister Winkler bought the gun for his own protection.We can juxtapose this with the statistic that I mentioned in the other thread: There are 8 times as many homicides in Tennessee as in Denmark. We can also juxtapose it with the quote from Heinlein: An armed society is a polite society.
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twburr on February 8, 2011 The Best sohuld had a couple of sprit drinks before he started that normally works to wear off the nerves, to bad im a best man on 3rd april, and i dont know what to say LOL
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Helen: It is certainly true that iianxocttion and prior criminal records are also risk factors for homicide. But you shouldn’t then say, oh they are all drunk, oh they are all criminals, therefore there is no need to think about other risk factors. After all, Mary Winkler didn’t have a criminal record and there has been no report that she was either alcoholic or a drug addict. You started this page by asking what was going on with this family. My answer is that even though some risk factors for spousal homicide were not present, two others still were: a bad marriage and a gun in the house.Even in cases when there is more than one risk factor at play, they can accumulate insidiously in our lives. For example, I’m certainly not alcoholic, but I do enjoy wine and dessert liquor sometimes. Would I become a 100% teetotaller for the privilege of having an unsecured gun in the house? Probably not. Of course you are right that guns and alcohol should not mix; the solution then is to keep guns locked up and out of sight if you own them.For that matter spousal homicide is associated with domestic violence, and right there you can have a criminal record. “Criminal record” is actually a vague term that can be as narrow as only felony convictions or as broad as all police arrests. Does getting arrested suddenly prompt people in bad marriages to secure their guns? Somehow I doubt it. A serious, lifelong habit of firearm security, and not just casual sure-I-know-how-to-use-a-gun assurances, are a better path to real safety.The question remains how much gun security there was in the Winkler household. I wouldn’t be surprised if she shot him with his own gun, nor if it was just sitting there unlocked and loaded. I would like to see the police report on that though.
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JasonViens23 on January 31, 2011 that was horrible lol aahhhaha.. im so happy mine didnt go that bad.. a bit of advice to all future best men.. dont try to be a inevative hero.. look up some good speeches take some good points from a few of them then impliment your own touch on them.. its a stressfull moment there is nothing wrong with a little help
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mccormack9 on February 18, 2011 My ciadve for a best man speech: (1) Write some bullet point notes. (2) Keep it under a minute unless your a professional speaker. (3) Make a joke yet keep it clean. Grandma does not want to hear about the threesome you and the best man had with Sally on spring break.
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Fantastic, yeahhh fatntsaic to be aware that who was 6 or 30 on wednesday (since the start of voting period) at 4am (gmt+1) become 159 and 169 at 11 in few hours a revolution on the list why? No trasparency on vote assignments. Before that happen few votes help to climb the list after hundred of votes don’t move far than 5 position why? And how is possible that artwork that was in the middle of the list remain at the same point when the list revolution happen?Too mistery, form the Saatchi organization no answer!I auspicate more transparency I feel defrauded as people vote for my artwork. One things is a genuine battle , transparent, where my artwork can be appreciated or not. But in this way there are to mistery.Was a problem created by the server? It’s the voting algorithm? or or I hope was a genuine error or that someone can explain what happens in 6 hours to many artwork. I also ask to have the last 24hours number of voting received as to double check if the server registered any vote or there was a problem.It can became the last scandal in the art world without any clear explanation of what happens. It is possible and natural to loose but for the natural way of people decision not via a ghost hand virtual (the server dosn’t work) or real!!!
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